Forecasting Product Liability Claims

This volume presents a rigorous account of quantitative forecasting efforts that led to the successful resolution of the Johns-Manville asbestos litigation. This case, taking 12 years to reach settlement, may generate over one million claims at a total nominal value of tens of billions of dollars. The forecasting task, to project the number, timing, and nature of claims for asbestos-related injuries from an unknown number of exposed persons, is a general problem. The models in this volume can be adapted to forecast industry-wide asbestos liability, as well as liability for other products and other insurable or compensable events. The volume illustrates the iterative nature of model building and the uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge of the processes of injury and litigation.The volume is written for actuaries, biostatisticians, demographers, epidemiologists, statisticians and analysts of problems in environmental health, finance, industrial risk, investment, occupational health, and product liability. Although statistics, calculus, and matrix algebra are used, the logic behind the quantitative analysis is explained so that readers without specialized quantitative skills can understand why and how specific methods are used. This volume will be an indispensable reference for lawyers, judges, and all whose work involves these topics.